Overcome challenges
BREAK LIMITS
FERTILIZER INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2025
UREA MARKET OUTLOOK
UREA PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
million tons
IN 2025
Global production is projected to reach approximately 190 million tons in 2025, driven by increased output from China, the Middle East, Russia, and North Africa. Consumption demand is expected to grow by about 2-3%, supported by the agricultural recovery in developing countries with improving prices of key agricultural commodities, enabling farmers to afford fertilizers and other essential inputs.
Urea remains the most widely used fertilizer, playing a crucial role in increasing crop yields and ensuring food security. The growth in global population requires higher agricultural productivity, driving the urea demand.
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to dominate the urea market, particularly in China and India, where agriculture plays an important role in the economy. Government policies for fertilizer industry promote the growth of this market.
Urea production is highly dependent on natural gas; therefore, fluctuations in natural gas prices can impact production cost and profit. Additionally, stringent environmental policies related to nitrogen emission may affect urea production and use, requiring manufacturers to comply and potentially renovate their production processes.
POTASSIUM MARKET OUTLOOK
GLOBAL POTASSIUM CONSUMPTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH
million tons
IN 2025
The global potassium market is expected to continue growing during the 2025-2026 period, with rising demand and price, but facing challenges in supply source and supply chain. In 2025, global potassium demand is anticipated to recover, following the 2024 trend, with estimated global consumption reaching 68-71 million tons. The global potassium supply mainly comes from major producers such as Canada, Russia, and Belarus. However, sanctions and geopolitical tensions may impact the supply capacity of these countries, leading to potential shortage and price increase at certain periods.
DAP MARKET OUTLOOK
DAP/MAP CONSUMPTION IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE AROUND
million tons
DAP production is expected to reach 52 million tons in 2025, with supply from China. DAP/MAP consumption is projected to remain stable at around 48 - 50 million tons, mainly driven by key import markets such as China, India, Brazil, and the U.S. However, sanctions and geopolitical tensions may impact the supply capacity of Russia and DAP/MAP CONSUMPTION IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE AROUND 48-50 million tons Belarus, leading to supply shortage at certain periods. Besides, China’s DAP export restrictions may affect global supply. It is forecasted that DAP/MAP prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to significant supply challenges and increasing global demand.
NPK MARKET OUTLOOK
NPK production is highly dependent on the prices of key raw materials such as urea, DAP, and potash, as they determine both production costs and selling prices. In general, given the current situation, NPK price is expected to rise in 2025 due to the increase in some input materials.
VIETNAM’S FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION IS ESTIMATED TO REACH
million tons
PER YEAR
Vietnam fertilizer market is expected to continue growing in 2025 thanks to many positive factors such as the increasing agricultural demand in the country and in the world as well as the supportive policies from the Government for agricultural sector, encouraging crop rotation and sustainable farming practices. Vietnam’s fertilizer consumption is estimated to reach 10.5-11 million tons per year.
From July 2025, fertilizers are subject to value-added tax (VAT) at 5%, instead of its previous of 0%. This VAT is expected to support the profitability of domestic fertilizer manufacturers thanks to input VAT refunds, thereby reducing production costs and enhancing the competitiveness of locally produced fertilizers against imported products.
Vietnam is expanding its export market, and the signing of trade agreements, along with improvements in product quality, will create growth opportunities for the Vietnam fertilizer industry in the global market in the near future.